Friday, January 22, 2010

NO to civil war, YES to democracy

I have been reading journalists' fears of renewed civil war in Iraq, but I don't think it will happen, not like it was in 2006 and 2007. The bombings of Iraqi security forces will continue as long as the "resistance" sees ISF and the Iraqi government as illegitimate. We should strive to make the elections as legitimate as possible, not matter what the "resistance" does.

The "resistance" has been bombing ISF and public places since 2003, but I doubt we will see a return to the kind of civil war that engulfed Iraq in 2006 and 2007. Alaa the Mesopotamian reminds us of the horrors at the height of the sectarian violence:

The country was divided into strictly segregated cantons where on both sides all those of the wrong sect were expelled from their homes and some murdered. People were murdered for no other crime than having the wrong name in the wrong place. Baghdad itself was divided into sectarian zones where anybody risked execution and torture if he ventured into the wrong neighbourhood. A childhood friend of my boys who lived few houses away from ours had been just married; he was a Sunni with a kind of neutral name. He was caught by a Sunni militia few hundred meters from my own house. The militia could not ascertain whether he was Shiite or Sunni, so they took his cell phone and phoned his wife asking her about it. The poor girl thought that he was caught by a Shiite Militia, and she told them that he was Shiite; he was promptly executed. To this day she cannot forgive herself and has become a psychiatric case. In January 2007, my own oldest cousin was shot by American soldiers mistaking him for a terrorist. He was buried ceremoniously by an Al-Qaeda crowd as a martyr. His son, a Sunni, however, was a police officer; he made the fatal mistake of showing his identity card in the cemetery. A month later he was pulled from his car in front of his wife and children, taken away and dumped two days later near his house with his body terribly mutilated by torture. He was murdered by the very same people who attended his fathers’ funeral. These were just couple of incidents that I personally witnessed amongst hundreds if not thousands of others. The years 2006, 2007 were the worst. Baghdad was a city of death and many parts of the city were like ghost towns where people feared to venture out of their front doors even for the most basic needs. Scores of corpses were found every morning littering the pavements and side streets and were collected and taken away by pickup trucks. These trucks laden with corpses piled on top of each other were a familiar sight in Baghdad. It was horror beyond imagination. The tragedies that took place are too painful to recall, some of which I witnessed personally. Baghdad had nearly fallen under the very nose of the American forces and the highly inefficient Iraqi security forces that they were trying to form.

Then came the counterattack. The credit must be shared between the troop surge decided by President Bush under the wise leadership of General Petraeus, the establishment of a unified Baghdad command by Al-Maliki’s government and the valiant efforts of the Anbar tribes and the Sahwa movement. The Iraqi security forces began to be developed in good earnest. The Maliki Government deserve to be credited for its determined and largely successful campaigns against Militias in the South primarily and the rather less successful ones in Mosul and Diyala. Towards the end of 2008 and in 2009 the insurgent tide had been more or less reversed. The war is not over and there is still much to be done, to be sure; but at least overt Militia control of entire provinces and neighbourhoods has ended and they were forced underground again. People can go about their business and shops are open; and even some neighbourhoods are becoming mixed again. In the shiaa areas calm has more or less been restored. Sectarian killings have almost stopped. However the scars of battle and the debris of destruction can still be seen all over the place, and underneath the surface animosities and sectarian hatred are still smouldering which is not surprising considering the atrocities inflicted by parties against each other. But the Iraqis are not a stupid people and everybody has realised that the violence did not serve anybody and that all sides stand to lose if it continues.

Iraq Pundit urges readers to not Miss the Real Story:

According to the NYT, the Sunnis are an endangered species. They are surrounded by hostile people coming from all directions. Watch out, Sunni Iraqis, your days are numbered. What utter nuttiness.

The paper says the decision, which is illegal, by the accountability and justice commsion has support among the people of Iraq for the banning of politicians from the ballot. The reporter implies civil war is but moments away:

"Thursday, hundreds of people in the predominantly Shiite cities of Basra and Najaf, in southern Iraq, demonstrated in support of the decision. They held banners denouncing the former Hussein government and burned pictures of some of the barred candidates."

Let's not forget the attitudes, according to the NYT, of the people who equate Sunnis with Baathists and therefore criminals: "The Baathists can't return to Iraq," Jabar Amen, the head of the Basra Provincial Council, said during the protest. "There is no place for them among us. There is no place for criminals."

The foolish reporter gives the impression that Iraq is uniquely horrid. That people here hate each other. It's an insult not only to Iraqis but also to readers who the journalists take for fools. The only way a reader can understand is when the story is simplified dramatically. But who's surprised? The NYT always overlooks the complexity of the Iraqis. Sure there were demonstrations in favour of the illegal decision. But there also were protests against the decision in Basra. Misrepresenting the situation here adds nothing but perhaps kudos from Iraq haters.

I agree with Talabani's move to ask Iraq's Supreme Court to investigate the legality of the bans. They should also investigate whether the candidates were actually involved in terrorist activities. Anybody, including members of Parliament, who can be proven beyond doubt to have been involved in terrorism must be tried in court. Otherwise this the ban is illegal.

Many Iraqi Shia and Kurds equate Baathists with Nazis, maybe worse than Nazis. Baathist leaders committed horrible crimes, no doubt. But the era of Saddam Hussein is over. Iraqi Shia must be reassured that it is impossible for Baathists to return to dominance, given the polls of Iraqi opinion of the neo-Baathists. I have predicted the neo-Baathists (and alliance led by Allawi and Mutlaq) may have up to 15% support in Iraq. With all this attention and the labeling of all Sunni Arabs as Baathists, neo-Baathist support may rise.

A return to civil war is unlikely because Al Qaeda in Iraq has largely been defeated and most Iraqi Sunni Arabs seemed to have joined the political process. The Baathists are embracing democracy like they should have done in 2004, and all Iraqis should support them. Not all Baathists are bad people. The resistance-loving Baathists, however, may continue to terrorize Iraqis, even if neo-Baathists are allowed to participate in the elections. Allowing the non-violent neo-Baathists to participate, however, will make the elections legitimate, and that should be the primary goal of all Iraqis.

17 comments :

C.H. said...

"I have been reading journalists' fears of renewed civil war in Iraq"


It isn't "fears" so much as hopes, at least in many media outlets.

Anonymous said...

mojo,you're truly pathetic. give up politics and do what you do best, shine american shoes and bend over for them. I am sure jeffrey from n.y misses you heaps.

Iraqi Mojo said...

You must be one of the Arabs who fled to Europe or America.

David All said...

Thanks Mojo for all these posts about the Iraqi elections and the disqualified candidates. I agree with you that far too many have been disqualified and that should be reversed. I believe one of the disqualified candidates is the current Defense Minister under whose leadership the ISF has become a viable force and has gotten the upper hand on the insurgents.

I think that President Talabani decision to take the matter to the Iraqi Supreme Court is the right one. Hope that many of the now banned candidates can be unbanned in time to participate fairly in the upcoming elections.

What you say about allowing neo-Bathists to participate in the election if they forsake violence and accept Iraq as a democracy is right. The post-war Italian republic has had a neo-fascist movement that is allowed to participate in elections, where they, the Italian Social Movement (ISM) is their official name, usually get between 5 and 10 percent of the popular vote. One of the ISM's deputies was Mussolini's granddaughter, a former fashion model and cover girl for the Italian edition of Playboy.

Iraqi Mojo said...

Very interesting, David All. I did not know that about Itlay. I suppose even in America any party can participate in politics, including the neo-Nazi party.

Anonymous said...

let me correct your ip reading am in europe. i had to escape to europe because shias like your ugly face harassed me into exile. so are you telling us you can actually read an ip?
here you go, i just confirmed it to you.
by the way your old man, the cia agent in london says hi. i occasionally meet with him, am yet to tell him what a fucked up son he has. and i must say, like father like son.

Maury said...

You meet regularly with CIA agents anonymous? Are you working undercover with the resistance? How many head-choppers have you turned in? Are there a lot of mujahadeen in the gay bars you attend? I've got lots more questions. You're the first CIA informant we've had on here.

Phoneyid said...

Interesting Anonymous(1/23/2010) what you say about "the cia agent in london", ... if it's in any way true then IraqiMojo should consider the ethics of such men that would even sacrifice their own son for profit.. check out this analysis/hypothesis regarding The Underwear Bomber’s Daddy.

Perhaps IraqiMojo should also consider the potential for being set up as a fall guy, merely an excuse for retaliation against a group, when one of their own places himself in the position of 'house nigger' like .
Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan.

I hope you all enjoy these sources of news analysis.
Even if some may wish to argue them as inaccurate, they are certainly well researched and considered.

Iraqi Mojo said...

"Are there a lot of mujahadeen in the gay bars you attend?"

LOL

Aton said...

Mojo, I love this new group of stalkers you have here on your blog. It is interesting how these cockroaches are so simple. Years ago, these cockroaches were more intellectual. Now, it’s like we are battling the bottom feeders and phonies.

Iraqi Mojo said...

Yes it's bizarre, Aton. In their simple minds I must work for the CIA because I support democracy in Iraq.

In their simple minds I must be a traitor to Iraq because I wanted to see the end of Saddam's murderous regime.

Anonymous said...

Naah, you do not work for the CIA. You are not qualified. Sure you are a despicable piece of trash but the CIA needs more capable people. They would need someone who is an actual Iraqi and someone who speaks Arabic. They would also need someone with skills and talent and knowledge and balls. You have none of that. You are just their cheerleader. Nothing more than a cheerleader.

And you are not a "traitor" because you are not an Iraqi. You are an American who lives in California. If you were in Iraq you would be a traitor if you can be. And you are not a traitor because you want to see an end to the Iraqi regime, but you are a traitor because you support a foreign invasion and occupation of Iraq. Talk about simple-minded!

Iraqi Mojo said...

I did not support invasion and occupation of Iraq. I only wanted to see an end to the regime of Saddam, the mass murderer of Iraqis. It should have happened in 1991. We should have helped Iraqis overthrow the mass murderer. Instead the Arabs cheered for Saddam. How sad.

I have never supported the killing of civilians.

Anonymous said...

Stupid you do nothing but support mass murder. When you supported the invasion of Iraq you supported mass murder on a massive scale. You can call it "getting rid of Saddam" as much as you want, but it is a foreign invasion and it is a violent military invasion. Calling it liberation or "getting rid of Saddam" is just pure stupidity. You parrot American bullhsit like a fucking moron. Even the Americans do not believe their own bullshit stupid. It is a foreign invasion and occupation. You can describe it anyway you want stupid but that is the reality. You are stupid. But who cares? You are also a nobody, an irrelevant little kid cheerleading for war and murder. Fuck you stupid

Anonymous said...

Fuck you. Fuck Bush. Fuck rumsfeld. Fuck Wolfowitz. Fuck cheney. Fuck Condoleeza. Fuck them all. And fuck your mother too you worthless piece of shit. You are the supporters of murder and slaughtering civilians. Saddam Hussein is resistance fighter and all the Iraqi resistance has more honor in their shoes than you all of you put together. Liars. Murderers. Killers.

Iraqi Mojo said...

There were many alternatives to military invasion and occupation. Many Iraqis believed there were alternatives; the vast majority of Iraqis had nothing to do with Bush & Cheney's decision to topple the mass murderer of Iraqis in 2003, but it happened, and the Arabs reacted by unleashing thousands of "mujahideen" who have mass murdered Iraqis.

Everybody knows by now that the Arabs in general don't give a shit about the average Iraqi. The Arabs, 90% of them Sunni, cared only about Sunni domination in Iraq. They resisted only after it became clear that America was determined to catch the mass murderer of Iraqis and put him on trial. The Arabs reacted by mass murdering Iraqis on a huge and indiscriminate scale that forced Iraqis to ask if life for them was better under Saddam. Good job ya "ikhwa". You are the one who supports the mass murder of Iraqis, Habis el Urduni.

Iraqi Mojo said...

Bush, Cheney and Condi have been out of office for more than a year now. Rumsfeld was fired in 2006.

My mother had nothing to do with invasion and occupation either.